IRS Publication 6186-A – In the ever-evolving landscape of tax administration, staying informed about projected tax return volumes is crucial for taxpayers, tax professionals, and IRS operations. IRS Publication 6186-A serves as a vital resource, offering concise insights into calendar year projections for federal tax returns across the United States and various IRS campuses. This guide breaks down the essentials of Publication 6186-A, highlighting its key features, methodologies, and implications for the future of tax filing.
What is IRS Publication 6186-A?
IRS Publication 6186-A is an annually updated document from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) that provides U.S.-level and campus-level calendar year (CY) projections for major tax return categories. As a one-sheet companion to the more comprehensive Publication 6186, it focuses on high-level summaries, including exam class projections for selected return types. It covers projections for individual, business, and tax-exempt returns, detailing trends in filing methods such as paper versus electronic submissions.
The publication is part of the IRS’s Statistics of Income (SOI) division efforts to forecast tax return filings, helping to optimize resource allocation at IRS processing centers. For the 2025 revision (Rev. 12-2025), it includes data from CY 2025 through CY 2032, making it an indispensable tool for anticipating shifts in tax compliance and processing demands.
Key Highlights from the 2025 Update
The latest edition of Publication 6186-A reveals several noteworthy trends in tax return projections:
- Electronic Filing Dominance: In CY 2024, about 82.6% of all tax returns were filed electronically, a figure projected to increase to 83.7% in CY 2025 and reach 90.7% by CY 2032. This shift underscores the IRS’s push toward digital submissions, reducing processing times and errors associated with paper filings.
- Individual Income Tax Returns: These comprised 60.3% of all returns in CY 2024, with electronic filings accounting for 93.3%. Projections indicate this will rise to 93.9% in CY 2025 and 97.0% by CY 2032, reflecting broader adoption of e-filing platforms like Free File and commercial software.
- Overall Return Volumes: The document projects total tax return volumes for the United States from CY 2025 to CY 2032, estimating steady growth in grand totals driven by population increases and economic factors. Detailed breakdowns include around 80 IRS tax forms, such as Form 1040, Form 1120, Form 941, and Form 990.
These highlights are visualized in charts within the publication, showing millions of returns processed annually, with electronic filings outpacing paper ones significantly.
Projection Methodology Explained
The projections in IRS Publication 6186-A are derived from robust statistical models developed by the SOI division. Here’s a breakdown of the approaches used:
- U.S.-Level Projections: These rely on time-series extrapolation techniques, including trended exponential smoothing. For more complex forecasts, regression models incorporate economic and demographic data from sources like IHS Global. New or emerging return types are projected based on patterns from similar forms.
- Campus-Level Projections: State-level forecasts are first created and adjusted to match U.S.-level totals. These are then allocated to seven IRS Submission Processing campuses (Andover, Austin, Cincinnati, Fresno, Kansas City, Ogden, and Philadelphia) using state-to-campus processing maps from IRS Taxpayer Services.
- Exam Class Projections: For categories like individual, fiduciary, partnership, corporate, estate, and gift returns, data from the IRS Master File is used, with adjustments for consistency. The 2025 update introduces new groupings for high-earning estates (Form 706).
This methodology ensures accuracy and reliability, adapting to legislative changes, economic trends, and filing behaviors.
Projections by IRS Campuses
Publication 6186-A maps projected return volumes to the seven key IRS campuses, providing insights into regional processing loads. In CY 2024 (actual data):
| Campus | Percentage of Total Returns Processed |
|---|---|
| Andover | 14.6% |
| Austin | 16.1% |
| Cincinnati | 0.1% |
| Fresno | 13.7% |
| Kansas City | 25.9% |
| Ogden | 18.2% |
| Philadelphia | 11.3% |
Note: Percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding.
These shares highlight Kansas City as the largest processor, handling over a quarter of returns. Future projections anticipate minimal shifts, with electronic filing reducing the burden on physical campuses.
Exam Class Projections and Their Significance
A unique feature of Publication 6186-A is its inclusion of exam class projections for six major return categories. These help the IRS prioritize audits and compliance efforts based on income levels, business types, and other criteria. For instance, the new high-earning estate groupings address evolving estate tax landscapes, ensuring targeted examinations.
Why IRS Publication 6186-A Matters for Taxpayers and Professionals?
For tax preparers, accountants, and software developers, these projections inform staffing, technology investments, and compliance strategies. Taxpayers benefit indirectly through improved IRS efficiency, potentially leading to faster refunds and fewer delays. Businesses can use the data to anticipate filing trends, especially for employment taxes (e.g., Form 941) and corporate returns (Form 1120).
In a broader context, these forecasts support policy decisions, such as funding for IRS modernization under initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act.
How to Access IRS Publication 6186-A?
The document is freely available on the IRS website in PDF format, including an accessible version for users with disabilities. For deeper dives, refer to the full Publication 6186, which expands on the summaries provided in 6186-A.
By leveraging IRS Publication 6186-A, stakeholders can better navigate the complexities of tax projections, ensuring preparedness for upcoming calendar years. Stay updated with the latest IRS statistics to maintain compliance and optimize your tax processes.