IRS Publication 6187-A – In the ever-evolving landscape of tax administration, accurate forecasting plays a pivotal role in resource allocation, operational planning, and policy development. IRS Publication 6187-A, officially titled “Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns by Major Processing Categories,” serves as a critical tool for understanding future trends in individual tax filings. Released by the Internal Revenue Service’s (IRS) Statistics of Income (SOI) division, this publication offers multi-year projections based on historical data, economic indicators, and recent legislative changes. Whether you’re a tax professional, policymaker, or curious taxpayer, this guide breaks down the essentials of Publication 6187-A, its key insights, and why it matters in 2026 and beyond.
For the most up-to-date details, download the PDF directly from the IRS website: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p6187a.pdf.
What is IRS Publication 6187-A?
IRS Publication 6187-A is a specialized report that provides detailed projections for individual income tax returns (primarily the Form 1040 series) categorized by major processing elements. It builds on the broader Publication 6187, often serving as an updated or summarized version with a focus on fall revisions. While Publication 6187 offers comprehensive U.S.- and campus-level forecasts, 6187-A typically highlights key trends in a more concise format, making it accessible for quick reference.
The publication includes estimates for:
- Total individual returns.
- Filing methods (paper vs. electronic).
- Payment categories (full-paid vs. other-than-full-paid).
- Refund types, including split refunds.
- Specialized forms like 1040-NR (for non-resident aliens), 1040-PR (for Puerto Rico residents), and 1040-SS (for self-employment tax in U.S. territories).
- Electronic filing components and computer-generated paper returns.
These projections span several calendar years, helping the IRS anticipate workload volumes at processing campuses and by state. The data is crucial for operational efficiency, especially in light of ongoing modernization efforts.
Purpose and Importance of Publication 6187-A
The primary goal of Publication 6187-A is to support IRS planning for tax return processing. By forecasting volumes across categories, it enables better staffing, technology allocation, and budget decisions. For external stakeholders:
- Tax Professionals and Software Developers: Gain insights into e-filing trends and refund patterns to optimize services.
- Policymakers: Understand the impact of tax laws on filing behaviors, such as shifts in itemized deductions.
- Researchers and Analysts: Access reliable data for studying economic trends, like growth in individual filings tied to population and income changes.
In an era of digital transformation, the publication also reflects how initiatives like paperless processing affect future volumes. As of the latest revisions, it incorporates data up to mid-2025, ensuring relevance for upcoming tax seasons.
Key Updates in Recent Revisions
The most recent versions of Publication 6187 and its companion 6187-A (e.g., Rev. 12-2024 and Rev. 12-2025) account for significant administrative and legislative developments. These updates ensure the projections remain accurate amid changing tax environments.
Administrative Impacts
The IRS has been advancing digitization since the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Key initiatives include:
- Digital Intake Scanning Initiative (2023): Began scanning select paper forms.
- Paperless Processing Initiative (2023): Expanded digitization efforts.
- Zero Paper Initiative (2025): Aims to scan all paper returns, increasing operational complexity but not yet separating scanned volumes from traditional paper in projections.
These efforts are expected to reduce physical paper handling, potentially shifting more returns to digital categories in future years.
Statutory Impacts
Recent laws have influenced filing behaviors:
- One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025: Makes the higher standard deduction from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (2017) permanent while temporarily raising State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction thresholds through 2029.
- This creates offsetting effects: Higher standard deductions discourage itemization, but elevated SALT limits encourage it for high-tax-state residents, leading to modest increases in Schedule A filings through 2030.
Projections exclude proposed initiatives until they are enacted and guided by IRS rules.
Methodology Behind the Projections
Publication 6187-A employs robust statistical methods to generate forecasts:
- Data Sources: Draws from IRS Master File for historical volumes, year-to-date filings (e.g., through July 2025), and alternative sources like campus data capture systems when needed.
- Modeling Approach: Uses time-series models for U.S.-level estimates, incorporating economic variables as leading indicators. State-level forecasts are scaled to national totals and aggregated to campus levels based on IRS processing maps.
- Specific Categories:
- Full-paid/other-than-full-paid: Extrapolated using year-to-date data.
- Refunds: Based on historical patterns, including fiscal year derivations.
- Computer-generated paper returns: Forecasted via regression models from Master File data.
This methodology ensures projections reflect real-world trends, such as the ongoing rise in e-filing (over 90% of returns in recent years).
Major Processing Categories and Projections
The publication organizes data into tables for clarity. While exact figures vary by revision, here’s a summary of typical categories and trends based on recent data:
| Category | Description | Key Projection Trends |
|---|---|---|
| Total Individual Returns | All Form 1040 series filings | Projected growth of ~1.1-1.2% annually; e.g., from 163.2 million in 2022 to ~170.3 million by 2026, with continued increases post-2026 due to population growth. |
| Paper vs. Electronic | Filing medium | E-filing dominates, expected to exceed 95% by 2030; paper volumes declining due to digitization initiatives. |
| Full-Paid/Other-Than-Full-Paid | Payment status upon filing | Full-paid stable; other-than-full-paid influenced by economic factors like unemployment. |
| Refunds (Including Split Refunds) | Returns with overpayments | High volume during peak seasons; campus-level breakdowns aid processing planning. |
| Specialized Forms (1040-NR, PR, SS) | Non-standard individual returns | Modest growth tied to immigration and territorial filings. |
| Schedule A (Itemized Deductions) | Required for itemizers | Modest uptick through 2030 due to SALT changes, countering standard deduction effects. |
These projections are presented at U.S., state, and campus levels, with Table 1A typically covering national overviews and Tables 2A-2C focusing on paper volumes by campus.
Implications for Taxpayers and Professionals in 2026
With tax season approaching, Publication 6187-A highlights a continued shift toward digital filing, encouraging taxpayers to use e-file options for faster refunds. Professionals can leverage these insights to advise clients on itemization strategies amid SALT and standard deduction changes. Overall, the projections signal steady growth in filings, underscoring the need for efficient IRS operations.
Conclusion
IRS Publication 6187-A is an invaluable resource for anticipating the future of individual tax return processing. By integrating economic, legislative, and administrative factors, it provides a forward-looking view that benefits everyone in the tax ecosystem. Stay informed by reviewing the latest edition from trusted IRS sources, and consult a tax advisor for personalized guidance.
Note: Projections are estimates and subject to change based on new data or laws. Always refer to official IRS documents for the most accurate information.