IRS Publication 6292 – In the ever-evolving landscape of U.S. taxation, staying informed about future trends in tax filings is crucial for taxpayers, businesses, and financial professionals alike. The IRS Publication 6292, titled “Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States: 2025-2032” (Fall 2025 edition), offers valuable insights into anticipated tax return volumes. This comprehensive forecast, prepared by the IRS Statistics of Income Division, helps stakeholders understand shifts in filing patterns influenced by economic factors, legislative changes, and technological advancements. Whether you’re a CPA planning for peak seasons or a policymaker analyzing administrative needs, these projections provide a roadmap for the coming years.
What Is IRS Publication 6292?
IRS Publication 6292 is a semiannual report that projects the number of tax returns expected to be processed by the IRS over an eight-year fiscal period. The Fall 2025 revision (Publication 6292 Rev. 9-2025) focuses on Fiscal Years (FY) 2025 through 2032, categorizing returns by type, filing method (paper vs. electronic), and IRS Business Operating Divisions (BODs) such as Taxpayer Services, Small Business/Self-Employed (SB/SE), Large Business and International (LB&I), and Tax Exempt/Government Entities (TE/GE).
These projections are essential for IRS resource allocation, budgeting, and policy development. They incorporate data from IRS Master Files, economic forecasts from IHS Global, and adjustments for recent events like the COVID-19 pandemic’s lingering effects and new digital initiatives. Notably, the report does not yet account for the full impact of the IRS’s Digital Intake and Paperless Processing Initiatives or the March 2025 Executive Order mandating electronic federal payments.
Key Trends in Tax Return Projections
The Fall 2025 update reveals several significant trends in U.S. tax filings:
- Overall Growth in Total Returns: The grand total of returns processed in FY 2024 was 266.6 million, a 1.8% decrease from FY 2023 due to a sharp drop in paper filings. Projections indicate a rebound with an average annual growth of 0.7%, reaching 282.2 million by FY 2032.
- Decline in Paper Returns: Paper submissions fell 19.9% in FY 2024 to 46.4 million, continuing a pre-pandemic downward trend. They are expected to decrease by 6.4% annually, dropping to 27.3 million by FY 2032.
- Rise in Electronic Filings: E-filed returns increased 3.1% in FY 2024 to 220.2 million and are forecasted to grow 1.9% per year, hitting 255.0 million by FY 2032. This shift underscores the IRS’s push toward digitalization.
These trends reflect broader moves toward efficiency, with electronic methods dominating due to faster processing and fewer errors.
Detailed Projections by Return Type
The publication provides granular forecasts across major categories. Here’s a breakdown of key projections from Table 1 (all figures in thousands):
| Category | FY 2024 Actual | FY 2025 Proj. | FY 2026 Proj. | FY 2027 Proj. | FY 2028 Proj. | FY 2029 Proj. | FY 2030 Proj. | FY 2031 Proj. | FY 2032 Proj. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Total | 266,581 | 266,581 | 269,568 | 271,479 | 273,197 | 275,054 | 276,887 | 278,800 | 280,636 |
| Individual Income Tax (Total) | 161,053 | 161,053 | 163,174 | 164,135 | 165,041 | 165,967 | 166,834 | 167,751 | 168,570 |
| – Forms 1040/1040-SR | 159,851 | 159,851 | 161,890 | 162,838 | 163,738 | 164,658 | 165,518 | 166,430 | 167,242 |
| Corporation Income Tax (Total) | 8,281 | 8,281 | 8,210 | 8,259 | 8,304 | 8,347 | 8,388 | 8,427 | 8,463 |
| Partnership (1065/1065-B) | 5,100 | 5,100 | 5,117 | 5,200 | 5,284 | 5,370 | 5,456 | 5,543 | 5,630 |
| Employment Tax (Total) | 33,594 | 33,594 | 34,063 | 34,242 | 34,490 | 34,739 | 34,991 | 35,245 | 35,501 |
| Exempt Organizations (Total) | 1,770 | 1,770 | 1,750 | 1,774 | 1,793 | 1,811 | 1,829 | 1,846 | 1,863 |
| Excise Tax (Total) | 1,141 | 1,141 | 1,139 | 1,147 | 1,156 | 1,167 | 1,177 | 1,188 | 1,200 |
Individual returns, primarily Forms 1040/1040-SR, remain the largest category, driven by population growth and economic factors. Employment taxes, including Forms 940 and 941, show steady increases, reflecting workforce expansions.
Table 2 further details filings by BOD, highlighting that SB/SE handles the bulk of small business and individual returns, while TE/GE focuses on exempt organizations and employee plans.
Methodology Behind the Projections
The IRS employs robust statistical models to generate these forecasts:
- Data Sources: Historical data from IRS Master Files, supplemented by Business Objects Enterprise Data and inputs from operating divisions.
- Modeling Techniques: Time series extrapolation (e.g., trended exponential smoothing) for most returns, and regression models incorporating economic and demographic variables from IHS Global (April 2025 data).
- Adjustments: Projections are calculated by calendar year and converted to fiscal years using quarterly patterns. COVID-19-related processing delays from 2020-2023 have been resolved, with no further carryover adjustments needed from 2024 onward.
The report also evaluates past projection accuracy using Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE). For grand totals, MAPE ranges from 1.77% to 2.16% for one-year horizons, indicating reliable forecasting.
Implications for Taxpayers and the IRS
These projections signal a continued digital transformation in tax administration. With paper returns declining, taxpayers may benefit from faster refunds and fewer errors through e-filing. However, challenges remain, such as integrating the impacts of the Digital Intake Initiative (which scanned significant portions of paper returns in CY 2024 and 2025) and the Executive Order on electronic payments.
For the IRS, these forecasts inform staffing, technology investments, and compliance strategies. Businesses, especially in employment and partnership sectors, should prepare for modest growth in filing requirements.
Related reports, like the Taxpayer Advocate Service’s 2025 Annual Report to Congress, align with these trends, noting over 165 million individual returns processed in 2025, with 94% electronic. This reinforces the shift toward efficiency amid stable overall volumes.
Conclusion
IRS Publication 6292 (Fall 2025) provides a forward-looking view of U.S. tax return projections, emphasizing growth in electronic filings and declines in paper submissions through 2032. By understanding these trends, taxpayers and professionals can better navigate the tax landscape. For the full details, download the PDF from the official IRS website. Stay updated with IRS resources to ensure compliance and optimize your filing strategy.