IRS Publication 6186 – In the ever-evolving landscape of tax administration, staying informed about future trends in tax return filings is crucial for taxpayers, professionals, and policymakers alike. The IRS Publication 6186, specifically its 2025 Update, provides valuable insights into projected tax return volumes for the United States and various IRS processing campuses from 2025 through 2032. This article delves into the key details of this publication, highlighting projections, trends, and important considerations to help you navigate the upcoming tax seasons effectively.
What is IRS Publication 6186?
IRS Publication 6186 is an annual report released by the Internal Revenue Service’s Statistics of Income (SOI) Division. It offers multi-year projections of federal tax return filings, broken down by calendar year. The publication covers approximately 50 different types of individual, business, and tax-exempt returns, including popular forms like Form 1040 (individual income tax), Form 1120 (corporation income tax), Form 941 (employer’s quarterly federal tax return), and Form 990 (return of organization exempt from income tax). These projections are essential for IRS resource planning, such as staffing and processing capacity at submission centers.
The 2025 Update, revised in December 2025 and posted on December 17, 2025, is based on data available as of August 2025. It does not incorporate pending legislation or new administrative initiatives that were under consideration at the time of publication. Notably, this edition discusses emerging policies like the Digital Intake Initiative, Paperless Processing Initiative, an Executive Order on modernizing federal payments signed in March 2025, and the One, Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB) enacted in July 2025. Future updates will assess the impacts of these changes as more information becomes available.
Key Highlights from the 2025 Update
The 2025 Update projects tax return volumes for the nation as a whole and for seven IRS Submission Processing campuses: Andover, Austin, Cincinnati, Fresno, Kansas City, Ogden, and Philadelphia. Projections include breakdowns by filing method (paper vs. electronic) and examination classes for six major tax return categories.
One significant focus is the shift toward digital processing. As of August 2025, scanned paper returns represented a small portion of processed filings—about 7.6% for Form 940, 15.7% for Form 941, and 2.1% for Form 1040. The IRS’s Paperless Processing Initiative, announced in August 2023, aims to digitally handle all paper-filed returns, though this update does not separately report scanned returns.
Additionally, the Executive Order “Modernizing Payments To and From America’s Bank Account” mandates electronic payments to and from the federal government where practicable. While not factored into the current projections, this could influence future filing volumes for affected forms. The OBBB, with its implications for individual and business taxpayers, is also noted but not incorporated due to ongoing implementation guidance.
Projected Tax Return Volumes for 2025-2032
The grand total of tax returns is expected to grow steadily over the projection period. In 2025, approximately 250 million returns are anticipated, increasing to over 300 million by 2032. This growth reflects broader economic trends, population changes, and evolving tax laws.
Individual income tax returns, which made up 60.3% of all processed returns in 2024, are projected to maintain a similar share in coming years. The publication provides detailed forecasts for around 80 IRS tax forms, ensuring comprehensive coverage for planning purposes.
| Category | 2024 Actual (Approx.) | 2025 Projection | 2032 Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Total Returns | ~240M (estimated based on trends) | ~250M | >300M |
| Individual Income Tax Share | 60.3% | Consistent | Consistent |
Note: Exact figures for 2024 are actuals; projections are estimates derived from IRS data.
E-Filing Trends and Digital Shift
Electronic filing continues to dominate, with significant growth projected. In 2024, 82.6% of all tax returns were filed electronically, expected to rise to 83.7% in 2025 and reach 90.7% by 2032. For individual income tax returns specifically, the e-filing rate was 93.3% in 2024, projected to increase to 93.9% in 2025 and 97.0% by 2032.
This trend underscores the IRS’s push toward modernization, reducing reliance on paper filings and improving efficiency. Taxpayers are encouraged to adopt e-filing for faster processing and refunds.
Breakdown by IRS Campuses
The projections also detail how returns are distributed across IRS campuses, aiding in regional resource allocation. Based on 2024 actuals, the shares are as follows:
- Kansas City: 25.9%
- Ogden: 18.2%
- Austin: 16.1%
- Andover: 14.6%
- Fresno: 13.7%
- Philadelphia: 11.3%
- Cincinnati: 0.1%
These percentages may shift in future years based on updated volumes and consolidation efforts. The publication maps projections to these seven campuses, providing campus-level details for strategic planning.
Methodology and Important Notes
The forecasts in Publication 6186 are developed using historical data, economic indicators, and statistical models. They are updated annually to reflect the latest information. However, as mentioned, the 2025 Update excludes impacts from recent policies like the OBBB and payment modernization order, which will be addressed in subsequent editions.
For those interested in state-level projections, refer to the companion Publication 6149, which complements 6186 by providing geographic breakdowns. Past editions of 6186 are available on the IRS website for historical comparison.
Why This Matters for Taxpayers and Professionals?
Understanding these projections can help tax preparers anticipate peak filing periods, advise clients on e-filing benefits, and prepare for potential changes driven by new legislation. For the IRS, these insights ensure efficient operations amid growing volumes.
To access the full IRS Publication 6186 2025 Update, visit the official IRS website. Staying updated on such reports can enhance your tax strategy and compliance efforts in 2025 and beyond.
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