IRS Publication 6961 – IRS Forms, Instructions, Pubs 2026 – In the complex world of tax administration, staying ahead of filing trends is crucial for the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and tax professionals alike. IRS Publication 6961, titled “Calendar Year Projections of Information and Withholding Documents for the United States and IRS Campuses,” provides essential forecasts that help shape operational planning, budgeting, and staffing. This annual publication, revised in September 2025, offers detailed projections from 2025 to 2033, incorporating the latest legislative changes, economic trends, and filing behaviors. Whether you’re a tax preparer, accountant, or IRS stakeholder, understanding these projections can optimize compliance strategies and resource allocation.
What Is IRS Publication 6961?
IRS Publication 6961 is an annual report produced by the IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) Division within the Research, Applied Analytics, and Statistics (RAAS) organization. It focuses on projecting the volume of information returns and withholding documents, such as Forms W-2, 1099 series, and 1042-S, filed with the IRS. These documents are critical for verifying income, withholdings, and other tax-related information.
The publication breaks down projections by:
- United States Level: Overall totals, including all filing methods (paper and electronic/nonpaper).
- IRS Campuses: Paper filings processed at specific locations like Austin, Kansas City, and Ogden.
- Filing Methods: Distinguishing between paper and nonpaper (electronic, magnetic tape, etc.) submissions.
Projections are based on historical data, recent filing experiences, and external factors like economic indicators from IHS Global. Key data sources include the Information Returns Master File (IRMF), Combined Annual Wage Reporting (CAWR), and campus-specific reports. Notably, the 2025 update reflects impacts from laws like the Taxpayer First Act, American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA), and the proposed One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), though pending legislation is not fully integrated.
Key Methodology and Data Sources
The IRS employs a combination of time series extrapolations, regression analysis, and manual adjustments to create these forecasts. Actual volumes from Calendar Year (CY) 2024 serve as a baseline, with 4.64 billion documents filed nationwide, dominated by electronic submissions (over 99%). Paper filings, at just 3.96 million, continue to decline due to digital shifts and IRS modernization efforts, such as the Information Reporting Intake System (IRIS) and online portals for Form 1099 variants.
Exclusions from projections include Forms 5471, 5472, and 8027, as well as certain Currency Transaction Reports (Form 8300), which are forecasted separately. Trends like rising interest rates (boosting Form 1099-INT) and market fluctuations (affecting Form 1099-B) are factored in, alongside administrative changes like campus consolidations.
Significant Trends in the 2025 Update
Compared to the prior update, the 2025 revision shows a 20.2% decrease in the CY 2026 grand total projection, largely due to reduced Form 1099-B volumes from stock market stabilization. Other notable changes include:
- Form 1099-INT: A 26.4 million drop in 2026 projections as interest rates stabilize.
- Form 1099-K: Reduced by 20.1 million in 2026, reflecting OBBBA’s restoration of the pre-ARPA threshold ($20,000 and 200 transactions).
- Paper Filings: Plummeting 93.6% by 2026, with Form 1096 projections hitting zero due to electronic mandates and IRIS adoption.
- Overall Growth: Despite short-term dips, long-term projections indicate steady increases, driven by economic expansion and rising nonwage income sources.
These trends underscore the IRS’s push toward digital filing, with nonpaper methods accounting for nearly all submissions by 2033.
United States Projections: All Media Grand Total
The grand total projections for the U.S. (all filing methods) show robust growth over the forecast period, rising from 4.79 billion in 2025 to 7.07 billion by 2033. Form 1099-B, reporting proceeds from broker and barter exchanges, dominates due to increasing digital asset and investment activities.
| Form/Category | 2025 (in thousands) | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Total | 4,786,198 | 5,209,293 | 5,552,055 | 5,885,207 | 6,182,237 | 6,435,497 | 6,658,732 | 6,863,415 | 7,069,254 |
| W-2 | 270,623 | 269,922 | 267,820 | 268,841 | 271,746 | 275,908 | 279,279 | 281,239 | 283,088 |
| W-2G | 31,557 | 32,777 | 34,065 | 35,423 | 36,855 | 38,365 | 39,958 | 41,638 | 43,410 |
| 1099-B | 3,364,234 | 3,771,864 | 4,122,919 | 4,445,687 | 4,727,165 | 4,964,872 | 5,169,130 | 5,356,663 | 5,544,196 |
| 1099-INT | 218,721 | 212,597 | 188,139 | 179,495 | 174,250 | 168,013 | 165,615 | 163,117 | 162,291 |
| 1099-K | 13,031 | 13,340 | 13,694 | 14,048 | 14,432 | 14,702 | 15,072 | 15,435 | 15,880 |
(Note: Subtotals and other forms like 1099-NEC and 1099-DIV show moderate growth; full details available in the publication.)
United States Projections: Paper and Nonpaper Filings
Paper filings are forecasted to decline sharply, from 1.19 million in 2025 to 558,200 by 2033, reflecting digital transformation. Key paper forms include Schedule K-1 variants and Form 1042-S.
| Category | 2025 (in thousands) | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Paper | 1,190,800 | 1,050,000 | 968,700 | 894,600 | 777,100 | 713,900 | 656,500 | 604,600 | 558,200 |
| K-1 (1065) | 504,300 | 461,400 | 421,800 | 385,100 | 351,100 | 318,000 | 287,600 | 260,100 | 235,400 |
| 1042-S | 77,700 | 74,900 | 72,200 | 69,600 | 67,100 | 64,700 | 62,400 | 60,100 | 58,000 |
Nonpaper filings mirror the grand total growth, reaching 7.07 billion by 2033, with electronic methods handling the bulk.
Projections for IRS Campuses (Paper Filings)
Paper processing is concentrated at three campuses: Austin, Kansas City, and Ogden. Projections account for state assignments and consolidations (e.g., international forms to Ogden).
- Austin Campus: Declines from 1.40 million (actual 2024) to 54,100 by 2033, primarily handling domestic forms.
- Kansas City Campus: From 1.19 million to 219,900, focusing on K-1 and certain states.
- Ogden Campus: From 1.37 million to 284,200, managing international and partnership forms.
Campus configurations remain stable, with no Austin closure as previously planned.
Why These Projections Matter?
For the IRS, these forecasts inform resource planning amid rising volumes and digital shifts. Tax professionals can use them to anticipate compliance demands, especially for forms affected by economic changes like interest rates or gig economy growth. Businesses filing information returns benefit from understanding thresholds and electronic requirements to avoid penalties.
Historical data from past editions (available back to 2005) allows for trend analysis, showing a consistent move away from paper.
How to Access IRS Publication 6961?
The latest version (Rev. 9-2025) is available as a free PDF download from the official IRS website at irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p6961.pdf. Historical editions and related SOI data, including Excel tables for CY 2005–2023, can be found on the IRS Tax Stats page.
Conclusion
IRS Publication 6961 serves as a vital tool for navigating the evolving landscape of tax information reporting. With projections highlighting a digital future and growing volumes, staying informed ensures better preparation for filers and administrators. For the most accurate guidance, always consult the official IRS resources and consider consulting a tax expert for personalized advice.