IRS Publication 6187 – In the ever-evolving landscape of tax administration, staying ahead of filing trends is crucial for efficient planning. IRS Publication 6187 serves as a vital resource, offering detailed projections for individual income tax returns. This annual update provides insights into filing volumes, helping taxpayers, professionals, and policymakers understand future trends in tax processing. Whether you’re a tax preparer optimizing operations or a curious filer wondering about electronic filing growth, this guide breaks down the essentials of the latest 2025 update.
What Is IRS Publication 6187?
IRS Publication 6187, titled “Calendar Year Projections of Individual Returns by Major Processing Categories,” is a comprehensive report produced by the IRS’s Statistics of Income (SOI) division. It forecasts the number of individual Form 1040 series returns (including Forms 1040, 1040-SR, and others) expected to be filed over multiple years. These projections are broken down by key categories such as:
- Filing Medium: Paper vs. electronic filing (e-filing).
- Payment Status: Full-paid returns vs. other-than-full-paid (e.g., balances due or refunds).
- Refund Types: Including standard refunds and split refunds.
- Special Forms: Projections for Forms 1040-NR (non-resident aliens), 1040-PR (Puerto Rico), and 1040-SS (self-employment tax for U.S. territories).
- Geographic Breakdowns: U.S.-level, state-level, and IRS campus-level estimates.
- Business Operating Divisions (BOD): Forecasts aligned with IRS organizational structures.
The publication is essential for IRS operational planning, resource allocation, and anticipating workload at processing centers. It incorporates recent filing data, economic indicators, and legislative changes to ensure accuracy.
Key Updates in the 2025 Edition
The 2025 revision (Rev. 12-2025) reflects data available as of July 2025, including year-to-date filing volumes and confirmed administrative initiatives. Notable updates include:
Administrative Modernization Efforts
- Digital Intake Scanning Initiative (2023): Began scanning select paper forms for digital processing.
- Paperless Processing Initiative (2023): Expanded digitization efforts.
- Zero Paper Initiative (2025): Aims to scan and digitize all paper returns, increasing complexity but not yet separating scanned volumes from traditional paper in projections. Future editions may refine this as more data emerges.
These initiatives stem from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and aim to streamline IRS operations by reducing physical paper handling.
Statutory Changes from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) of 2025
- Makes permanent the higher standard deduction from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017.
- Temporarily increases State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction thresholds for tax years 2025–2029.
These changes create mixed incentives for itemization: The permanent higher standard deduction limits itemizers, while elevated SALT thresholds encourage more itemization among high-tax-state residents. As a result, Schedule A filings (for itemized deductions) are projected to see a modest multi-year increase through 2030, contrasting with prior forecasts of a sharper spike in 2027.
Methodology Behind the Projections
The forecasts in Publication 6187 rely on robust data sources and analytical methods:
- Data Inputs: Historical data from the IRS Master File, year-to-date 2025 filings through July, and alternative sources from IRS operating divisions when needed.
- Modeling Approach: Time-series models for U.S.-level totals, extrapolated to state and campus levels using IRS processing maps. Economic variables serve as leading indicators for future filings.
- Subcategory Projections: Full-paid/other-than-full-paid and refund volumes use year-to-date data and historical trends. Electronic filings are modeled separately, with campus alignments based on current configurations.
- Exclusions: Pending legislative or administrative changes are not included to avoid speculation.
Accuracy is assessed against prior projections, with measures like mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) provided in the report.
Highlights of the Projections
While detailed tables cover projections through at least 2032, here are key highlights from the 2025 update:
Total Individual Returns
- Projected to reach 161.5 million in Calendar Year (CY) 2025, a 1.4% increase from prior estimates.
- Expected to grow at an average annual rate of 0.8%, reaching approximately 164.1 million by CY 2028.
Electronic Filing Trends
- In CY 2024, about 93.3% of individual returns were filed electronically.
- This is forecasted to rise to 93.9% in CY 2025, continuing upward to 97.0% by later years (e.g., approaching 2032 based on trends).
- Paper returns continue to decline, aligned with digitization efforts.
Refunds and Other Categories
- Refund projections (Tables 3 and 5) include U.S., campus, and e-filed breakdowns for both calendar and fiscal years.
- Split-refund estimates (Table 4) account for returns directing refunds to multiple accounts.
- E-filed components (Tables 6A–6C) detail projections by IRS campus, while state-level e-filed totals are in Tables 7A–7C.
These trends reflect growing adoption of digital tools, influenced by convenience, faster refunds, and IRS incentives for e-filing.
Why These Projections Matter?
For tax professionals, Publication 6187 aids in forecasting client volumes and preparing for peak seasons. Policymakers use it to gauge tax system efficiency, while the IRS leverages it for staffing and technology investments. With ongoing shifts toward paperless processing, these forecasts highlight a future of faster, more secure tax handling.
How to Access IRS Publication 6187
The full document is available for free download from the official IRS website at https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p6187.pdf. Historical data and related publications (e.g., Publication 6186 for overall return projections) can be found on the IRS SOI Tax Stats page.
Stay informed by checking for annual updates, as projections evolve with new data and laws. For personalized tax advice, consult a qualified professional.
This article is based on the latest available information as of February 2026. Always verify with official IRS sources for the most current details.