In the ever-evolving landscape of U.S. taxation, understanding future trends in tax return filings is crucial for taxpayers, businesses, and policymakers alike. The IRS Publication 6292-A, titled “Fiscal Year Return Projections for the United States: 2025-2032,” offers a comprehensive forecast of tax return volumes across various categories. Released in September 2025, this document provides essential insights into how tax filings are expected to shift over the next several years, influenced by economic factors, technological advancements, and post-pandemic recovery. This SEO-optimized guide breaks down the key elements of the publication, including methodology, trends, and detailed projections, to help you navigate these forecasts effectively.
What is IRS Publication 6292-A?
IRS Publication 6292-A is a semiannual report produced by the IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) Division, focusing on U.S.-level projections of tax returns processed during fiscal years (FY) 2025 through 2032. It covers major return categories, such as individual income taxes, corporation taxes, employment taxes, and more, with breakdowns by filing methods (paper vs. electronic). The publication serves as a planning tool for the IRS, helping to allocate resources and anticipate workload changes. It builds on historical data from the IRS Master File and incorporates economic and demographic trends from sources like IHS Global.
Unlike calendar-year projections, this report uses the federal fiscal year (October 1 to September 30), making it particularly useful for IRS operational planning. The Fall 2025 edition notes that processing delays from the COVID-19 pandemic have been resolved, allowing for more accurate alignments between filed and processed returns starting in FY 2024.
Methodology Behind the Projections
The projections in IRS Publication 6292-A are derived from a blend of statistical models and historical data. Key approaches include:
- Data Sources: Primarily from the IRS Master File, supplemented by Business Objects Enterprise Data and input from IRS operating divisions.
- Modeling Techniques: Time series extrapolation (e.g., trended exponential smoothing) for most categories, with regression models incorporating economic variables like GDP growth and population changes from IHS Global.
- Conversion Process: Calendar-year estimates are converted to fiscal-year figures based on quarterly filing patterns.
- Adjustments: No further COVID-19-related adjustments are needed post-2023, as processing normalized in 2024.
This rigorous methodology ensures the projections reflect real-world trends, such as the ongoing shift toward electronic filing.
Key Trends and Insights
The publication highlights several significant trends shaping U.S. tax return filings:
- Overall Growth: The grand total of returns is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.7% from FY 2025 to 2032, rising from approximately 266.6 million in FY 2024 to 280.6 million by FY 2032.
- Decline in Paper Filings: Paper returns are expected to decrease by an average of 6.4% annually, reflecting the digital transformation in tax preparation.
- Rise in Electronic Filings: E-filings will grow by 1.9% per year, reaching about 251.3 million by FY 2032, driven by user-friendly platforms and IRS incentives.
- Individual Returns Dominance: Individual income tax returns (e.g., Form 1040 series) make up the bulk, with steady growth tied to population increases.
- Business Returns: Partnership and corporation filings show modest growth, influenced by economic expansion.
These trends underscore the IRS’s push toward modernization, with electronic methods reducing processing times and errors.
Detailed Projections from Table 1
Table 1 in the publication provides granular forecasts for the number of returns by category. Below is a summarized table of key projections (in thousands, rounded for clarity). For full details, refer to the official PDF.
| Category/Subcategory | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Total | 266,581 | 269,568 | 271,479 | 273,197 | 275,054 | 276,887 | 278,800 | 280,636 |
| – Paper | 46,383 | 44,460 | 41,550 | 38,792 | 36,258 | 33,892 | 31,527 | 29,307 |
| – Electronic | 220,198 | 225,109 | 229,929 | 234,405 | 238,797 | 242,995 | 247,273 | 251,329 |
| Total Primary Returns | 228,125 | 230,497 | 231,734 | 232,986 | 234,262 | 235,481 | 236,753 | 237,928 |
| Individual Income Tax, Total | 161,053 | 163,174 | 164,135 | 165,041 | 165,967 | 166,834 | 167,751 | 168,570 |
| – Forms 1040/1040-SR, Total | 159,851 | 161,890 | 162,838 | 163,738 | 164,658 | 165,518 | 166,430 | 167,242 |
| — Paper | 10,311 | 9,649 | 8,722 | 7,922 | 7,196 | 6,569 | 5,907 | 5,371 |
| — Electronic | 149,540 | 152,241 | 154,117 | 155,817 | 157,462 | 158,949 | 160,523 | 161,871 |
| – Forms 1040-NR, Total | 858 | 924 | 944 | 959 | 974 | 989 | 1,004 | 1,019 |
| — Paper | 379 | 391 | 367 | 338 | 310 | 282 | 253 | 225 |
| — Electronic | 479 | 534 | 577 | 621 | 664 | 708 | 751 | 795 |
| – Forms 1040-PR/1040-SS, Total | 344 | 359 | 353 | 344 | 335 | 326 | 317 | 309 |
| — Paper | 95 | 96 | 96 | 95 | 95 | 94 | 94 | 93 |
| — Electronic | 249 | 263 | 257 | 248 | 240 | 232 | 224 | 216 |
| Individual Estimated Tax (Form 1040-ES), Total | 12,077 | 12,041 | 12,002 | 11,962 | 11,922 | 11,883 | 11,843 | 11,804 |
| – Paper | 11,801 | 11,697 | 11,644 | 11,596 | 11,549 | 11,501 | 11,454 | 11,406 |
| – Electronic | 276 | 344 | 358 | 366 | 374 | 382 | 390 | 398 |
| Fiduciary (Form 1041), Total | 3,165 | 3,153 | 3,141 | 3,129 | 3,116 | 3,104 | 3,093 | 3,081 |
| – Paper | 320 | 295 | 271 | 250 | 231 | 214 | 199 | 185 |
| – Electronic | 2,845 | 2,858 | 2,870 | 2,878 | 2,885 | 2,890 | 2,894 | 2,897 |
| Fiduciary Estimated Tax (Form 1041-ES) | 588 | 583 | 583 | 583 | 583 | 583 | 583 | 583 |
| Partnership (Forms 1065/1065-B), Total | 5,100 | 5,117 | 5,200 | 5,284 | 5,370 | 5,456 | 5,543 | 5,630 |
| – Paper | 262 | 243 | 230 | 220 | 212 | 206 | 202 | 199 |
| – Electronic | 4,838 | 4,874 | 4,970 | 5,065 | 5,158 | 5,249 | 5,340 | 5,430 |
| Corporation Income Tax, Total | 8,281 | 8,210 | 8,259 | 8,304 | 8,347 | 8,388 | 8,427 | 8,463 |
| – Paper | 945 | 910 | 864 | 824 | 790 | 761 | 736 | 715 |
Note: Numbers are in actual counts; table abbreviated for key categories. Full data includes additional subcategories like employment tax returns and exempt organization returns, available in the official document.
Implications for Taxpayers and the IRS
These projections signal a continued emphasis on digital filing, which could mean faster refunds and fewer errors for individuals using e-file options. For businesses, the growth in partnership and corporation returns highlights the need for robust tax software. The IRS may invest more in technology to handle the increasing volume, potentially improving service levels. Economic factors like inflation and job growth will influence actual filings, so staying updated via IRS resources is advisable.
Conclusion
IRS Publication 6292-A provides a vital roadmap for U.S. tax return projections from 2025 to 2032, emphasizing growth in electronic filings and overall stability. Whether you’re a taxpayer planning ahead or a professional analyzing trends, this document is an invaluable resource. Download the full PDF from the IRS website for in-depth tables and notes: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p6292a.pdf. For the latest updates, visit the IRS SOI Tax Stats page.