IRS Publication 6149 – In the world of tax administration and economic forecasting, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides valuable resources to help taxpayers, policymakers, and researchers anticipate filing trends. One such essential document is IRS Publication 6149, titled Calendar Year Return Projections by State. This annual report offers detailed forecasts of tax return filings across the United States, broken down by state, form type, and filing method. Whether you’re a tax professional, state government official, or business owner planning for compliance, understanding these projections can inform budgeting, resource allocation, and policy decisions.
Released in its latest update in December 2025, Publication 6149 covers projections from 2025 through 2032, making it a go-to source for long-term tax return trends. In this SEO-optimized guide, we’ll explore what the publication entails, its methodology, key insights, and how to access it—drawing from official IRS sources for accuracy and reliability.
What Is IRS Publication 6149?
IRS Publication 6149 is part of the IRS’s Statistics of Income (SOI) division, which compiles data on tax filings to support informed decision-making. Specifically, it provides multi-year projections of the number of federal tax returns expected to be filed with the IRS, categorized by the taxpayer’s state of residence (based on the address listed on the return).
The report includes forecasts for approximately 50 different types of returns, encompassing:
- Individual returns: Such as Form 1040 (individual income tax returns).
- Business returns: Including Form 1120 (corporation income tax) and Form 941 (employer’s quarterly federal tax return).
- Tax-exempt returns: Like Form 990 (return of organization exempt from income tax).
- Other categories: Employment taxes, excise taxes, and more.
Additionally, the projections differentiate between filing methods—paper versus electronic—to reflect the ongoing shift toward digital submissions. This granularity helps stakeholders predict workload volumes for IRS processing centers and state-level tax implications.
Historically, the publication has been updated annually, with past editions covering ranges like 2024–2031 (June 2024 update) and earlier versions dating back to 2017–2024. The 2025 edition, revised in December 2025, extends forecasts to 2032, incorporating recent economic data and filing behaviors.
The Purpose and Importance of Calendar Year Return Projections
Why does the IRS produce these projections? The primary goal is to assist in operational planning, such as staffing IRS offices, allocating resources for return processing, and estimating revenue collections. For states, these forecasts can influence local tax policies, economic analyses, and even projections for state income tax filings, as federal and state returns often align.
Key benefits include:
- Policy Development: Governments use the data to model the impact of tax law changes, like those from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act or inflation adjustments.
- Business Planning: Tax preparation firms and software providers can anticipate demand for services in specific states.
- Research and Analysis: Economists and researchers leverage the projections to study migration patterns, population growth, and economic shifts, as return volumes often correlate with demographic trends.
- Compliance Forecasting: Helps predict electronic filing adoption rates, which have been rising steadily, reducing paper-based workloads.
In an era of economic uncertainty—factoring in inflation, remote work trends, and post-pandemic recovery—these state-level insights are more crucial than ever. For instance, states with growing populations like Texas or Florida may see higher projections for Form 1040 filings, while others might experience stagnation.
Methodology Behind the Projections
The IRS employs a robust, data-driven approach to create these forecasts, ensuring they are based on trusted historical trends and external factors. According to official descriptions, the methodology involves:
- Historical Data Analysis: Using actual filing data from prior years (e.g., 1985–2023) as a baseline, with supplemental historical tables provided in the publication.
- Econometric Modeling: Incorporating economic indicators such as population growth, employment rates, GDP forecasts, and migration data from sources like the U.S. Census Bureau.
- Form-Specific Adjustments: Projections account for legislative changes, technological advancements (e.g., e-filing incentives), and behavioral shifts in taxpayer filing habits.
- State-Level Granularity: Addresses are used to apportion national projections to individual states, with considerations for regional economic variations.
The IRS notes that these are estimates and subject to revisions based on new data. For example, the 2025 update integrates post-2023 filing statistics and economic outlooks up to late 2025. While exact formulas aren’t publicly detailed for proprietary reasons, the publication includes appendices explaining assumptions and limitations, such as potential underestimation due to unforeseen events like natural disasters or policy shifts.
Key Highlights from the Latest Projections (2025–2032)
The 2025 edition of Publication 6149 forecasts a gradual increase in overall return volumes, driven by population growth and economic recovery. Here’s a high-level overview based on IRS summaries:
| Category | Key Forms | Projected Trends (2025–2032) |
|---|---|---|
| Individual Income Tax | Form 1040, 1040-SR | Steady growth, with electronic filings exceeding 90% by 2030 in most states. |
| Corporation Income Tax | Form 1120 series | Moderate increases in high-business-activity states like California and New York. |
| Employment Taxes | Form 941, 940 | Rising with workforce expansion, particularly in service sectors; paper filings declining. |
| Exempt Organizations | Form 990 series | Stable, with slight upticks in nonprofit-heavy regions. |
Nationwide, total returns are expected to rise by 1–2% annually, with electronic submissions dominating (over 80% for most forms). State-specific data reveals variations: For example, Sun Belt states may see higher growth due to migration, while Rust Belt areas could experience slower increases. The publication also includes historical tables for context, covering tax years back to 1985.
For precise numbers, users should consult the full tables in the PDF, as aggregates can vary by year and state.
How to Access IRS Publication 6149?
Accessing the document is straightforward and free through official IRS channels:
- Visit the IRS SOI Tax Stats page for the latest version.
- Download the PDF directly from https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p6149.pdf.
- Check for updates on the IRS “What’s New” section, as revisions occur annually.
Prior editions, such as the 2020 version covering 2020–2027, are available for historical comparison via archived PDFs.
Conclusion: Leveraging IRS Projections for Better Tax Planning
IRS Publication 6149: Calendar Year Return Projections by State is an indispensable tool for anyone involved in tax forecasting or economic analysis. By providing detailed, state-specific insights into future filings, it empowers users to stay ahead of trends and make data-informed decisions. As the U.S. economy evolves, keeping an eye on these updates—especially the 2025–2032 forecasts—can help mitigate surprises during tax season.
For the most current information, always refer to official IRS resources. If you’re dealing with specific state projections or need assistance interpreting the data, consider consulting a tax advisor. Stay informed, and file smart!