IRS Publication 5508 – In an era where population movements shape economic landscapes, tax policies, and regional development, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) provides invaluable insights through its Statistics of Income (SOI) division. IRS Publication 5508, titled “Migration Data: Non-migrant and Migrant Returns,” offers a detailed look at U.S. migration patterns based on tax return data. This publication, revised in September 2023, focuses on calendar years 2020–2021, highlighting how Americans moved during a period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic and shifting work dynamics. Whether you’re a policymaker, researcher, or curious taxpayer, understanding this data can reveal trends in domestic migration, economic impacts, and demographic shifts.
What Is IRS Publication 5508?
IRS Publication 5508 is a key resource from the IRS SOI division that analyzes migration data derived from individual income tax returns. It breaks down year-to-year address changes reported on Form 1040, providing migration patterns at state and county levels. The publication distinguishes between non-migrant returns (those where taxpayers stayed in the same state or county) and migrant returns (those indicating a move to a different state or county). This data helps track inflows (new residents and their origins), outflows (departing residents and destinations), and non-migrants within areas.
Unlike census data, which captures a broader population, IRS migration data focuses on tax filers, approximating households and individuals through returns and exemptions claimed. It includes metrics like the number of returns, personal exemptions (representing people), and adjusted gross income (AGI) starting from 1995. For 2020–2021, the data identifies 8.9 million migrant returns, representing 16.3 million people.
Key Definitions: Non-Migrant vs. Migrant Returns
To grasp the insights in IRS Publication 5508, it’s essential to understand its core terms:
- Non-Migrant Returns: These are tax returns where the filer’s address remains in the same state or county from one year to the next. They represent stability and make up the majority of matched returns. In 2020–2021, non-migrants accounted for the bulk of the data, reflecting limited movement for most taxpayers.
- Migrant Returns: These indicate a change in address to a different state or county. Migrant data is calculated by subtracting non-migrant returns from total matched returns. For 2020–2021, migrants were more likely among younger age groups, with those under 35 showing higher mobility.
- Migration Data: This encompasses overall patterns, including net migration (inflows minus outflows), age breakdowns, and AGI flows. The data does not cover the entire U.S. population, as non-filers (e.g., low-income individuals) are excluded.
These definitions allow users to analyze how migration affects local economies, such as through changes in AGI flowing in or out of regions.
Data Sources and Methodology
The IRS SOI migration data is sourced from address changes on individual tax returns filed before late September each year, capturing 95–98% of filings. For Publication 5508 (2020–2021), the methodology involves matching returns across years to identify moves. Enhancements since 2011–2012 include better data quality and breakdowns by AGI size and taxpayer age.
Data is available for filing years 1991 through 2022, with the latest 2021–2022 datasets released in June 2024. Users can download CSV or Excel files for state-to-state and county-to-county flows. Limitations include exclusion of late filers and non-filers, so totals may not align with other IRS statistics.
Key Findings from 2020–2021 Migration Data
IRS Publication 5508 reveals significant trends during the 2020–2021 period, influenced by remote work and housing shifts:
- Age Group Breakdown: Younger taxpayers were more mobile. Those aged 26–35 comprised 32.2% of migrants, followed by 35–45 at 25.0%. Together, they accounted for 57.2% of individuals who moved. Older groups (55+) showed lower migration rates.
- Net Migration by State: Florida led with a net gain of 261,863 individuals (126,837 returns), followed by Texas (182,704 individuals) and North Carolina (79,317). California experienced the largest net loss (-355,809 individuals), then New York (-267,156) and Illinois (-106,716).
- Inflows and Outflows by Age: In top inflow states like Texas and North Carolina, over 55% of new residents were aged 26–45. Outflow states like New York and California saw similar age groups departing at rates above 55%.
These patterns highlight a “Sun Belt” migration trend, with southern states gaining population and income.
Updates and Latest IRS Migration Data (2021–2022)
While Publication 5508 covers 2020–2021, the IRS has released data for 2021–2022, showing continued trends. For instance, states like South Carolina and Florida maintained high net migration rates (17.07 and 14.41 per 1,000 residents, respectively), while New York and California saw ongoing outflows (-13.54 and -9.21 per 1,000). Oregon reported a net loss of -6,896 individuals. Future releases, including 2022–2023 data expected in March 2026, will provide further insights.
How to Use IRS Migration Data?
This data is crucial for:
- Economic Analysis: Tracking AGI flows to assess tax revenue impacts.
- Policy Planning: States use it for housing, education, and infrastructure decisions.
- Research: Tools like Purdue’s IRS Migration Tool visualize non-migrant, same-state migrant, and different-state migrant returns.
Access the full Publication 5508 PDF and datasets on the IRS website for in-depth exploration.
Limitations of the Data
Despite its utility, the data excludes non-tax filers and late submissions, potentially underrepresenting low-income or young populations. It also focuses on domestic migration, omitting international moves.
In summary, IRS Publication 5508 serves as a vital tool for decoding U.S. migration dynamics through tax lenses. As patterns evolve with economic changes, staying updated via IRS SOI resources ensures informed perspectives on where Americans are heading next. For the most current data, visit the IRS migration page.