Printable Form 2026

IRS Publication 5870 – Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Projections Maps

IRS Publication 5870 – The IRS released Publication 5870 (Rev. October 2024) in mid-October 2024 as the official visual guide to the nation’s tax gap for Tax Year 2022. Titled Federal Tax Compliance Research: Tax Gap Projections Maps, this concise document presents schematic “maps” (flow diagrams and breakdowns) that clearly illustrate how the IRS calculates the difference between what taxpayers owe and what they actually pay.

Download the latest PDF directly from the IRS:
Publication 5870 (Rev. 10-2024)

What Is the Tax Gap?

The tax gap is the difference between the total true tax liability (what U.S. taxpayers should pay under the law) and the amount paid voluntarily and on time.

  • Gross tax gap = taxes not paid on time (nonfiling + underreporting + underpayment).
  • Net tax gap = the portion of the gross tax gap that the IRS ultimately never collects, even after enforcement actions and late payments.

The tax gap matters because it affects federal revenue, fairness in the tax system, and the funding of public services. The IRS uses these projections to prioritize enforcement, improve service, and guide policy.

Key Findings from IRS Publication 5870 – Tax Year 2022

Total true tax liability: $4,635 billion
Tax paid voluntarily & timely: $3,939 billion (85.0% Voluntary Compliance Rate)
Gross tax gap: $696 billion
Enforced & other late payments: $90 billion
Net tax gap (tax not collected): $606 billion (86.9% Net Compliance Rate)

These figures are projections based on the most recent complete compliance data, updated as new information becomes available.

Gross Tax Gap Components (TY 2022)

  • Underreporting: $539 billion (77% of gross gap)
  • Underpayment: $94 billion (14%)
  • Nonfiling: $63 billion (9%)

Underreporting dominates, especially income that is hard to detect (e.g., business income with little third-party reporting).

Breakdown by Type of Tax (from the Publication 5870 Maps)

The schematic maps in Publication 5870 break the gap down by major tax categories:

  • Individual Income Tax → Gross gap $514 billion | Net gap $447 billion (largest share)
  • Employment Tax → Gross gap $127 billion | Net gap $119 billion
  • Corporation Income Tax → Gross gap $50 billion | Net gap $40 billion
  • Estate & Excise Taxes → Remaining balance (included in totals)

Individual income tax accounts for roughly three-quarters of the underreporting gap, driven by business income, credits, and filing-status issues.

Voluntary Compliance Rate Remains Steady at 85%

The Voluntary Compliance Rate (VCR) measures the share of true tax liability paid on time without enforcement. For 2022 it held at 85.0%, nearly identical to the revised 2021 rate (84.9%) and the 2014–2016 baseline.

Historical Trend of Compliance Rates (IRS data via CRFB analysis)
The chart shows the VCR has been remarkably stable around 83–85% for two decades, despite economic changes, tax-law reforms, and the COVID-19 pandemic. The net compliance rate (after enforcement) hovers in the high 86–87% range.

How the IRS Produces These Projections (Publication 6031)?

Publication 5870 is the visual companion to the more detailed Publication 5869 (Tax Gap Projections) and Publication 6031 (Tax Gap Projections Methodology).

The methodology is straightforward but data-intensive:

  • Uses audited compliance rates from the 2014–2016 National Research Program as the baseline.
  • Scales underreporting and nonfiling proportionally to growth in reported tax amounts.
  • Updates enforced collections and late payments with the latest administrative data.
  • Makes conservative assumptions and explicitly notes limitations (e.g., emerging issues such as digital assets or complex flow-through entities are not fully captured yet).

The IRS emphasizes that these are projections, not final estimates, and will be revised when newer compliance studies are complete.

Why Publication 5870 Matters for Taxpayers, Practitioners, and Policymakers?

  1. Highlights high-risk areas — Business income with low third-party reporting, certain credits, and self-employment taxes show the highest noncompliance rates.
  2. Informs IRS strategy — The agency uses the data to focus audits, expand information reporting, and improve outreach.
  3. Promotes voluntary compliance — Clear, public data helps honest taxpayers understand that the vast majority (85%) already comply fully.
  4. Supports tax reform discussions — Lawmakers and analysts reference these figures when debating simplification, enforcement funding, or new reporting requirements.

How to Use and Access the Full Set of Resources?

Primary documents (all free on IRS.gov):

Previous editions (2020–2021 and earlier) remain available for historical comparison.

Final Takeaway

IRS Publication 5870 provides the clearest, most up-to-date visual map of America’s tax compliance landscape for Tax Year 2022. The $696 billion gross tax gap is large in absolute dollars, but the 85% voluntary compliance rate has remained remarkably consistent for decades. The data underscore that most Americans pay what they owe on time, while pinpointing the specific areas—primarily underreporting of business income and credits—where the IRS and Congress continue to focus improvement efforts.

For the most current and authoritative information, always refer directly to the IRS publications linked above. Taxpayers who want to stay compliant can use IRS Free File, the Tax Withholding Estimator, and reputable tax software or professionals—tools that directly support the high voluntary compliance the nation already enjoys.